Australia – Leadership Change Brings Uncertainty

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing LP, and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the NP, would lose a general election that falls due Read Entire Entry

Sri Lanka – Political Climate Looking Brighter

MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: Unity Coalition 45% Five-Year: *UNP-led Coalition 55% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS   Turmoil Financial Transfer Direct Investment Export Market 18-Month: Moderate B- A- B Five-Year: Moderate C+ B+ B- ( ) Indicates change in Read Entire Entry

Ukraine – Debt Deal a Temporary Fix

The process of resolving a sovereign debt crisis took a major step forward in August, when Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko announced that the government had reached an agreement with a group of hedge fund investors for a debt restructuring deal that will reduce Ukraine’s debt pile by about $3.6 Read Entire Entry

United Arab Emirates – Regime Flexing Military Muscle

The eruption of mass unrest that swept across North Africa and the Middle East in 2011, the so-called “Arab Spring,” produced barely a ripple within the UAE, thanks in large part to a two-pronged government strategy that entailed generous spending of the country’s oil wealth on social Read Entire Entry

Germany – Rumblings on the Right

The grand coalition of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU and the center-left SPD is showing signs of strain, but that is not cause for concern, given the conflicting policy preferences of the governing parties (which include the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU), and the series of Read Entire Entry

India – Key Reforms Remain in Limbo

MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: Divided Government 60% Five-Year: *BJP Majority 55% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS   Turmoil Financial Transfer Direct Investment Export Market 18-Month: High B B+ B Five-Year: Moderate B B B- * Indicates forecast of a new regime. Read Entire Entry