Coming in our May Reports

         A considerable amount of attention this month will be paid to developments in Western Europe as France and Greece witnessed important elections in which voters appeared to reject notions of fiscal austerity and the incumbents that promulgated such policy actions. Indeed, the election to the French presidency of Francois Hollande likely signals the beginning of a new approach to addressing the growth and debt issues affecting many of the countries of the eurozone, as the new head of state has vowed not to ratify the EU’s fiscal discipline treaty unless more policy emphasis is placed on growth. While such a move would put him largely at odds with the approach taken by Germany’s Angela Merkel, Hollande will also have to name a prime minister and staff, as well as secure a parliamentary majority for his side in the June 10 and 17 elections.

         PRS will also look at Ireland, and provide some insights into the May 31 referendum in which voters will be asked to give the government the go-ahead to ratify Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination and Governance. We’ll address how the French and Greece elections may shape the vote, and the consequences of a rejection by the electorate, which would preclude the government tapping the EU’s rescue fund when the current bailout package expires in 2013.

         Clients are advised to consult the Regional Overview contained in each monthly issue of ICRG for additional insights in the euro zone and other regions and the risk rating adjustments that have been made. Clients of ICRG should also note that new corruption data has been entered and, where applicable, corresponding changes have been made to this risk metric affecting a country's profile.

         Turning to the Middle East, the coalition of moderate Islamist and secular parties making up the interim government in Tunisia is a potential model for other Arab countries making the transition from authoritarian rule. PRS will analyze the alliance’s prospects for steering a safe course through the numerous political obstacles that lie ahead, chief among them the growing militancy of conservative Islamists and the persistence of broader socioeconomic discontent, both of which have long-term implications for the country’s business climate.

         In the Americas, the return of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez to Cuba for the removal of a second tumor in February has once again raised questions about the leftist leader’s ability to win, let alone serve out, another term at the election scheduled for October 7. Our report will examine what a victory for challenger Henrique Capriles might mean for the country’s business climate, and the implications for political stability if Chávez manages to win another term.

         Over in Africa, we will look at the recent coup in Guinea Bissau and assess claims by the interim military regime that its actions were precipitated by a secret accord the former government signed to permit the entry of troops from Angola. PRS will also look at the extent of the military’s control over the country, and whether clients can expect elections anytime soon.

          PRS will also focus on developments in Nigeria and Kenya, and discuss Ethiopia’s recent efforts to improve its economic competitiveness – some of which interfaces with its troop involvement in Somalia.

         In Asia, we’ll have reports on the aftermath of the election in Hong Kong, and the challenges facing the new chief executive to close the significant wealth gap there amid heightened risk levels of popular discontent. A report on Brunei is also planned.

         And finally in Eastern Europe, PRS will look at Hungary, in which populist economic policies implemented by the Fidesz government have tarnished the country’s reputation among investors and constitutional changes that threaten the independence of state institutions have drawn heavy criticism from the European Commission. Our analysis will focus on the Fidesz government’s chances of securing a badly needed bailout loan from the IMF, and what the likely conditions attached to a new lending agreement portend for investment-related policies going forward.

         PRS will close out this section by assessing the recent elections in Armenia and whether the vote will do much to improve the government’s democratic credentials. Attention will also be paid to the continuing and high-profile corruption trials in Croatia, and look at which politicians are involved, the main charges against them, and what the process means for overall political risk.

For details Contact Us, or get your subscription to PRS and ICRG today.