IMF researchers used ICRG’s composite risk scores as the main proxy for overall country risk, finding that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than non-borrowing countries, and that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter. See “IMF Lending and Banking Crises,” Luca Papi, Andrea F. Presbitero and Alberto Zazzaro, IMF Working Paper (15/19), Jan. 2015.

Below is a sample of the data utilized, taken from the full data table covering 140 countries:

 

TABLE 1 – COUNTRY RISK, RANKED BY COMPOSITE RISK RATING

(February 2017 versus March 2016)

 

Rank in 02/17 Country Composite Risk Rating 02/17 Composite Risk Rating 03/16 02/17 versus 03/16 Rank in 03/16
Very Low Risk
1 Switzerland 88.8 88.3 0.5 2
2 Norway 87.8 89 -1.3 1
3 Luxembourg 86.8 86.8 0 3
Low Risk
18 Austria 79.8 79 0.8 21
19 Czech Republic 79.5 78 1.5 25
20 Malta 79.5 77.3 2.3 27
Moderate Risk
61 Morocco 69.5 69.8 -0.3 65
62 Guatemala 69.3 70.5 -1.3 62
66 Paraguay 69.3 67.3 2 76
High Risk
118 Gambia 59.5 61.8 -2.3 111
119 Lebanon 58.5 60.8 -2.3 116
120 Ethiopia 58.3 58.8 -0.5 121
Very High Risk
136 Sudan 48.8 48.3 0.5 137
137 Libya 48 52.5 -4.5 132
138 Somalia 46.5 41 5.5 140

 

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