Cuba – Diplomatic Opening Will Reinforce Reform Impetus

POLITICS Diplomatic Opening Will Reinforce Reform Impetus The surprise announcement by US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro of an agreement to pursue the normalization of relations has significant positive implications for Cuba’s risk profile. The policy changes unveiled by Read Entire Entry

Germany – Anti-Euro Voices Grow Louder

GERMANY RISK ASSESSMENTS One Year Ahead Five Years Ahead Risk Category Year Ago Current 04/15 Worst Case Best Case Worst Case Best Case Political Risk 85.5 85.5 78.5 86.5 76.5 87.5 Financial Risk 42.5 37.5 35.5 41.0 34.0 44.5 Economic Risk 44.0 43.5 42.0 45.5 36.5 46.5 Composite Risk 86.0 83.3 Read Entire Entry

Morocco – Signs of Unease

MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES  18-Month:  Mohamed 75%  Five-Year:  Mohamed 70% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS  Turmoil Financial Transfer  Direct Investment  Export Market  18-Month:  Moderate  B-  B  B-  Five-Year:  Moderate  B-  B  B ( ) Indicates Read Entire Entry

Iraq – Crisis on Top of Crisis

In mid-2014, jihadist fighters belonging to ISIL carried out a military offensive that within a matter of weeks left the group controlling large sections of Iraqi territory, including Mosul, the country’s second largest city, and important industrial centers, and, for a time, appeared to pose a Read Entire Entry

Russia – Abundant Signs of Trouble

The unwavering popular support for Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy has been sustained in spite of the sanctions imposed over Russia’s support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine, and the president’s popularity only increased following his unexplained 10-day disappearance from the public Read Entire Entry

Argentina – A Mysterious Death, a Major Crisis

The death of Alberto Nisman shortly before the prosecutor was to deliver congressional testimony that included allegations of an offer by President Cristina Fernandez’s administration to protect Iranian agents involved in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires has unleashed Read Entire Entry