Political Players in France

François Hollande: The PS leader won the run-off presidential election in May 2012, and began his term with a strong popular mandate that was confirmed by the victory of the PS in the June parliamentary elections. In contrast to the populist tone of his campaign, Hollande’s governing style has Read Entire Entry

Canada – Economic Slump Spells Trouble for CPC

In mid-July, Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz affirmed that the country’s GDP contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the April–June 2015 period, technically meeting the definition of a recession. That is very bad news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s CPC government, which will be Read Entire Entry

Nicaragua – Pushback against Canal Plan Grows

President Daniel Ortega’s government is pressing ahead with a plan to build an interoceanic canal across Nicaragua, a venture that is both audaciously ambitious and, to date, utterly lacking in transparency, characteristics that have made the project a subject of both continuing skepticism and Read Entire Entry

Egypt – Security Risks Cloud Investment Climate

The delay of parliamentary elections that had been scheduled for March will extend the period during which President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi will govern without the restraining influence of an elected legislature. The former army chief won a five-year term in mid-2014 with more than 95% of the vote, Read Entire Entry

Greece – Crisis Averted, but Risks Remain

A months-long standoff between Greece and its EU creditors reached a turning point on July 13, when Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist government agreed to implement reforms demanded by Germany and other members of the euro zone in return for a third bailout package that will make available Read Entire Entry

Russia – Fragile Stability

Russia’s investor credentials remain badly tarnished, despite the partial recovery in global oil prices from their January lows lending support to the ruble, which at the end of June was trading about 25% higher than the nadir hit back in February. In the absence of a stronger recovery in oil Read Entire Entry

Israel – Razor-thin Majority Leaves No Room for Error

POLITICS Government Stability Razor-thin Majority Leaves No Room for Error Polls conducted in the run-up to an early parliamentary election held on March 17 pointed to a closely fought battle for first place between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s center-right Likud party and the Zionist Read Entire Entry

China – Drop in Stock Market Could Have Political Implications

CHINA - RISK ASSESSMENTS       One Year Ahead Five Years Ahead Risk Category Year Ago Current 07/15 Worst Case Best Case Worst Case Best Case Political Risk 56.0 56.5 53.0 65.0 50.5 69.0 Financial Risk 47.5 48.0 44.0 48.5 36.0 49.0 Economic Risk 40.0 41.5 39.0 42.5 32.5 44.0 Composite Risk 71.8 Read Entire Entry