United States – Trump in Contention, in Spite of Himself

A presidential election whose outcome could significantly alter the role of the US on the world stage, and the manner in which it plays that role, is now just weeks away, and a contest that as recently as mid-August looked to end with a comfortable victory for former Secretary of State Hillary Read Entire Entry

Ukraine – Pressure for Results

Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s troubled tenure as prime minister came to an early end in April 2016, following a two-month standoff with President Petro Poroshenko, who concluded back in February that fresh leadership would be required to jump-start a stalled reform program that is crucial to unlocking Read Entire Entry

Turkey – Failed Coup Strengthens Erdoğan

On July 15, a faction of the military attempted to seize power from the elected AKP government. The attempted coup was defeated within 24 hours, and a jubilant President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared the attempt to overthrow the government to be “a gift from God,” a clear indication that he Read Entire Entry

India – Impasse Broken, but Obstacles Remain

MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: Divided Government 55% (60%) Five-Year: *BJP Majority 50% (45%) FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS   Turmoil Financial Transfer Direct Investment Export Market 18-Month: High B B+ B Five-Year: Moderate B- B B- ( ) Indicates change in Read Entire Entry

Japan – Constitutional Reform Still a Priority

On July 10, voters cast ballots to fill one-half of the seats in the 242-member House of Councilors, the upper house of the Parliament, and delivered a convincing victory for the incumbent LDP, which together with its coalition partner, Komeito, and the support of smaller parties and independents Read Entire Entry