China – Health Crisis Tests Regime’s Credibility

A health crisis arising from the coronavirus outbreak is testing public faith in a state bureaucracy that is the linchpin of CCP’s iron grip on power. The epidemic comes at a particularly inconvenient time for President Xi Jinping, who was already struggling to manage a damaging trade war with Read Entire Entry

AI: The future of geopolitical risk

Would you like a look at the future of geopolitical risk? An AI-driven approach that combines PRS' longstanding quant-driven metrics with other data to offer investible actions for discretionary asset managers? It’s arrived. Backed by famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller (who, with George Soros, Read Entire Entry

Thailand – Slim Majority an Impediment

Although the holding of long-delayed elections in March 2019 cleared the way for the restoration of something resembling civilian democratic rule, the government continues to be headed by former coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha, and with the military-appointed representatives in the upper legislative Read Entire Entry

Oman – Balancing Act Becoming More Challenging

Under the leadership of Sultan Qaboos, Oman has historically served as a mediator in disputes among the member states of the GCC, and, especially over the last decade, between the GCC and the Iran. However, the sultanate’s continuing effort to remain on good terms with its feuding neighbors has Read Entire Entry

INVESTIR – October 2019 Edition

October’s edition of INVESTIR: Insights from the International Country Risk Guide is now available. From unrest in Chile to contract viability risk in Papua New Guinea. Bullish on the real and select European equities; winners and losers in geopolitical risk; market implications for risk this Read Entire Entry

Germany – AfD’s Rise Narrows Coalition Options

The next federal election does not fall due until September 2021, but the jury is still out on whether Chancellor Angela Merkel will complete her full term in office, having turned over the reins of the main-governing CDU to Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Both the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, Read Entire Entry

Japan – Abe’s Pet Project Hits a Snag

Losses sustained by the main governing LDP at elections for roughly one-half of the seats in the 245-member House of Councilors, the upper chamber of the Parliament, have significantly complicated Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hopes of achieving his goal of revising Japan’s pacifist constitution Read Entire Entry

Costa Rica – Reforms Fuel Backlash

Carlos Alvarado is in some ways an accidental president, in that he appeared to an also-ran contender in the 2018 election until a controversial ruling on same-sex marriage issued by the IACHR just weeks before the first round on voting completely upended the campaign. Despite his improbable win Read Entire Entry

Cuba – Economy in a Vise

Now in the second year of his presidency, Miguel Díaz-Canel is enduring a baptism by fire as he attempts to usher in a new era in Cuba’s political history, following nearly six decades of continuous rule by the Castro dynasty. The economy is being squeezed from two directions, as Cuba’s Read Entire Entry

Vietnam – Steering a Steady Course

Nguyen Phu Trong continues in his dual role as both general-secretary of the ruling CPV and national presidency, the latter role having been taken up following the sudden death of Tran Dai Quang last October. However, Trong is himself 75 years old, and the unexpected demise of Quang raises Read Entire Entry