Venezuela – Political Crisis Approaching a Climax

The breakdown of the constitutional order has proceeded apace in Venezuela, as President Nicolás Maduro continues to exploit his control of the judiciary and the electoral apparatus to thwart efforts by the opposition majority in the National Assembly to use all legal means at its disposal to Read Entire Entry

Haiti – A Working Government, but for How Long?

A partial round of legislative elections was held in late January, and the official results were confirmed shortly before the country’s new president, Jovenal Moïse, was sworn into office for a five-year term in early February. The completion of the last round of voting marked the culmination of Read Entire Entry

Portugal – Hard Choices Yet to Be Made

Prime Minister António Costa remains quite popular more than 18 months into his four-year term, benefiting from Portugal’s strongest economic performance in a decade, which has boosted employment and created room for an easing of fiscal austerity. However, both Costa’s high approval rating and Read Entire Entry

Azerbaijan – Default Reveals Transparency Risks

Investors were caught by surprise in May, when the country’s largest commercial lender, IBA, missed a payment of principal and interest on $100 million worth of subordinated debt. The revelation that the central bank had already shifted $5.9 billion worth of bad debt off the bank’s balance Read Entire Entry

Uruguay – Support for FA Continues to Shrink

President Tabaré Vázquez and his FA government continue to suffer an erosion of popular support, despite signs that the center-left government has managed to weather the worst of an economic storm that has badly battered Uruguay’s neighbors.  Part of the problem is the appearance of evidence Read Entire Entry

Cameroon – Crackdown Could Spark Unrest

President Paul Biya has yet to confirm his plans with regard to seeking re-election to another seven-year term in 2018, creating some uncertainty over the outlook for political stability in the country.  Against that backdrop, authorities have shown little tolerance of dissent, with security Read Entire Entry

Slovakia – Coalition under Stress

Barely a year has elapsed since the multi-party coalition government headed by Prime Minister Róbert Fico’s Smer took charge, and the evident tensions among the ideologically diverse partners point to a risk that the government could fall apart before completing its four-year term in 2020, and Read Entire Entry

Italy – Risk of Market Retreat

Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who stepped down after constitutional reforms proposed by his government were rejected by voters at a referendum held in early December, cleared the first hurdle of his political comeback in April, winning re-election as leader of the governing PD, which he Read Entire Entry

Saudi Arabia – A Step Back on Reform

An austerity drive that underpins the Vision 2030 economic diversification program unveiled by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in April 2016 was partially reversed last month, when a royal decree rescinded cuts to bonuses and benefits for public-sector workers that went into effect in Read Entire Entry

Nigeria – Buhari’s Illness Cause for Anxiety

As political leaders struggle to lift the economy out of a prolonged recession caused by a protracted slump in global oil prices, questions surrounding the health of President Muhammadu Buhari, who is only half-way through his four-year term, have introduced yet another source of political risk. Read Entire Entry