Singapore – Refreshing the Leadership

Political instability is unlikely to be a major problem for investors to contemplate in the short term, with the ruling PAP in full command of the unicameral legislature, and Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong making gradual adjustments to ensure a smooth succession. Lee has indicated that he is Read Entire Entry

Keeping the Budget in Balance

ICRG's May 2017 Budget Balance as % of GDP Read Entire Entry

Costa Rica – Window for Fiscal Reform Closing Fast

President Luis Guillermo Solís’ already poor prospects for securing passage of a package of tax reforms aimed at staving off a medium-term debt crisis are dimming rapidly. With the next presidential and legislative elections scheduled for February 2018, political leaders who aspire to succeeding Read Entire Entry

El Salvador – Partisan Battles Add to Debt Risk

On April 10, the rating agency Fitch released a statement declaring the government of El Salvador to be in selective default on its debt obligations, owing to its failure to make a scheduled payment of $29 million to a local pension fund. Citing the missed payment, Fitch revised the long-term Read Entire Entry

Germany – Merkel Still in the Driver’s Seat

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s perceived mishandling of the European refugee crisis has left her vulnerable to a successful challenge for her job at a general election that will be held in September. Her only serious competition will come from Martin Schulz, a former president of the European Read Entire Entry

Mexico – Peña Nieto Has a Trump Problem

MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: PRI Coalition 60% Five-Year: *Divided Government 55% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS   Turmoil Financial Transfer Direct Investment Export Market 18-Month: High B+ A- B+ Five-Year: Moderate B- A- B ( ) Indicates change in rating. Read Entire Entry

Ukraine – Another Political Crisis Is Brewing

As Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman approaches the end of his first year in office, the situation in Kiev is a mess, and the policymaking process has ground to a halt at a time when there is urgent need for action. That has not only impeded efforts to secure additional loans under a $17.5 billion Read Entire Entry

Sri Lanka – Disappointment with Sirisena Growing

The government of President Maithripala Sirisena is struggling to reconcile the conflicting demands of its electoral promises and the terms of the lending agreement reached with the IMF last June, as a mushrooming fiscal deficit and soaring national debt raised the specter of a credit crisis. Read Entire Entry

Hong Kong – New Leader Favored by Beijing

Hong Kong elected a new chief executive of the SAR on March 26, with former Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam defeating former Finance Secretary John Tsang by a two-to-one margin in voting among the nearly 1,200 members of the Election Committee, a body who membership is tilted in favor Read Entire Entry

Vietnam – Courting China

When the governing CPV held its 12th five-year National Congress in January 2016, the ruling party affirmed its commitment to pursuing closer relations with the US, which figured centrally in the government’s economic development strategy and the protection of Vietnam’s interests in the face of Read Entire Entry