The Paris terrorist attacks on January 7 have made clear what has long been expected by PRS in its risk forecasts: the methods of terrorist organizations are changing in ways that will require different approaches by governments and others than those adopted and honed in the post-9/11 period. Terrorism is now more tightly organized and nimble, and incidents such as the Paris attacks reveal that the established means for countering the threat, such as closing off financing channels and targeting terrorist leadership, are becoming less effective.

PRS sees counter-terrorism authorities looking to social media and data mining more extensively; tighter security in public and private spaces will be the norm; a more effective outreach to Muslim leaders will be made. The changing character of terrorism will also likely affect patterns of investment in Muslim nations, possibly creating a kind of “perception divide” between nations that take demonstrable steps to assure foreign capital of their security and those that remain less committed. Politically, policy will be increasingly driven by security concerns and foreign policy will play an increasingly reflective and important role in investment flows.