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COVID-19 Mortality and Internal Conflict: What’s the Relationship?

geopolitical risk ratings firm

What is the connection between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict?

In this just released study, published in the European Journal of Political Economy, our ICRG risk metrics were used to shed some light on this relationship, and consider the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

Using cross-country data from over 100 countries, some of the findings include:

During the first two years of the pandemic, a 1% increase in the COVID-19 death rate per million people is associated with a 1.05% increase in the ICRG internal conflict growth.

In countries where the government’s macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.

This is a rich and varied study and a clear contribution to the literature in the field.  Have a look at the full study here:


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