Established in 1979, The PRS Group is the world’s leading quant-driven political and country forecasting and risk rating firm. With its early intellectual roots firmly planted in academe and in joint research with the US State Department and the CIA, the firm now stands alone in the sector by interfacing its longstanding data series with artificial intelligence to produce truly outstanding, predictive results. PRS is also a world leader in the production of corruption risk data and geospatial satellite analysis, and is the only firm of its kind to be recognized by the courts in commercial litigation as authorities in the field.
The firm occupies an exclusive position in the industry through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary, quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Country Reports & Economic Forecasts (CREF) and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
Our data includes political, economic, and financial risk ratings and forecasts derived from two methodologies, dating to the early 1980s. The firm also offers economic indicators for all countries covered in its universe, including: real GDP, inflation, current account, external debt, to name several – historically. Every data series includes confidence intervals for more precise forecasting.
At a clients’ request, PRS data can now be interfaced with a number of artificial intelligence programs to produce outstanding and unique results. For example, ICRG’s composite risk scores have been projected one year ahead with a 90% accuracy rate! No other firm in the world can offer this type of risk-related insight.
PRS’ projections have been tested against foreign investor losses due to political reasons and found to be most accurate. Studies by researchers have found correlations between ICRG data and International Monetary Fund program implementation, sovereign spreads, and bank lending volume. Others have found ICRG data to “provide information that has great predictive value with respect to future equity returns globally,” and to help determine the impact of financial asset shortages in emerging markets on economic growth, asset price bubbles, and the probability of a crisis.
Our clients include: global asset managers, many of the world’s development banks and lending agencies, academics at universities worldwide, and multinational firms with assets held globally, usually in the manufacturing and natural resource extraction sector. Non-governmental organizations, think tanks, and private equity groups also purchase our reports and data on a regular basis and engage the firm in consulting projects.
The risk ratings are determined by our global roster of country and political risk experts, and by our editorial staff using the two methodologies.
Yes! We have offer several products focused on the academic community built with input from our academic clients: Researchers Datasets, Political Risk Yearbook, IRIS Dataset, The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis, and Political Risk Assessment: Concept, Method, and Management.
We provide discounts on our business-focused products for academic use.
University libraries typically purchase our monthly and annual publications for their value as a reference material. Our historical datasets are used extensively by researchers to contribute to the literature by illuminating a range of political and economic phenomena. To see how other academic institutions use our products click here.
For a complete listing of the data available, click here.
Most of our ICRG historical ratings go back to 1984.
INTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE
The ICRG is completely separate from the Political Risk Services line of products. Dr Christopher McKee uses a separate methodology to arrive at its political and country risk ratings. The ICRG also supplies subscribers with the methodology and formulas used to calculate our risk ratings, as well as the data needed to make these calculations. This allows clients to tailor the ratings system to their specific needs.
The ICRG is updated monthly. In each new issue, data and statistical tables are completely updated and new text analysis is provided for approximately 20 countries.
INVESTMENT AND FINANCIAL FIRMS
Worldwide events of the last several years, from the euro-zone crisis to terrorist attacks, to the solvency issues affecting many developed nations, make it clear that politics can have a significant impact on the profitability of business and investment and on a range of asset classes. The PRS Group provides the means for risk mitigation as well as the insight in order to exploit political and economic events for profit.
Companies in the finance and investment sector tend to use our services and products in the context of portfolio and risk management, whether it is to advise commodity and currency trading stratagems or to inform the purchase of political risk insurance to protect their investments against financial losses.
Yes. The ICRG methodology is particularly well suited to do this since its risk metrics can be re-weighted to reflect firm-specific risk interests. Clients are entitled to monthly consultations with our experts, and larger consultations can be arranged easily.
Yes. Our methodologies are exhaustive in detailing and quantifying political, economic, and financial risk, as well as the impact of various regimes on the policy options facing governments in relation to trade and investment. Whether your firm is concerned about the risk of expropriation, regulatory changes, terrorism or strike activity, and government solvency, to name a few, our forecasts and risk ratings quantify such risks so they can be compared across jurisdictions and over time.
Country Reports & Economic Forecasts (CREF)
PRS is based on the Coplin-O’Leary political and country risk rating methodology. It is the only risk methodology that provides probabilities to alternative political regimes over an 18-month and five-year term.
PRS’ Country Reports are updated at various times throughout each year, although events in some countries may dictate more frequent updates than in other countries. Our reporting services, such as the World Service, are updated monthly. For more information, look at the specific product in the shopping cart.