geopolitical risk ratings firm

Debt, Default and Political Uncertainty

geopolitical risk ratings firm

Ever wonder if there is a connection between debt and default and political uncertainty? More importantly, can the relationship be quantified? 


Using our ICRG risk data, this interesting piece – published initially as part of the Banco de Mexico’s working paper series and later included in the Journal of International Economics – considers the impact of political uncertainty on default incentives and sovereign debt and thus on the behavior of country interest rate spreads. Significantly, the piece looks at how changes in re-election probabilities affect a country’s risk of default and spreads.  

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