Emerging Markets, Alternative Investments, and ICRG’s ‘Pure’ Political Risk Series
Despite some recent not-so-pleasant thoughts on the future path of emerging markets (forward PE’s are lower than the previous 12 months), some select opportunities in the asset class are being sought by local pension funds via illiquid alternatives with infrastructure private debt and equity and property being the most desirous.
As such, some work involving our ICRG data series underscores its importance to the valuation of investments, since it is able to isolate the ‘pure political’ risk from a country’s overall risk profile, and thus avoid ‘double-counting.’ Viz, the project’s cashflows are forecasted in the absence of political risk events, which are then incorporated via an upward adjustment to the discount rate based on a country’s sovereign spread. (https://www.academia.edu/2686889/Political_Risk_and_International_Valuation)
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