Canada Votes: How Did Geopolitics Affect the Outcome?

Canada’s general election produced a not-so-surprising result, as the voting tide was turning in favor of Mark Carney’s Liberals in the wake of President Trump’s comments about Canada, the 51st state, et al.

What’s significant though is that, while the votes are still being counted, even a minority government will be in a stronger position legislatively as Conservative opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre – who but four months ago was an almost shoe-in as the next prime minister – lost his seat. The Conservatives will now have to hold a leadership vote.

Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than two-and-a-half years, but given that most of the attention of the new government will be on redirecting international trade and negotiating a new economic and security relationship with the US, this one might have some legs.

The literature using our ICRG data to shed light on elections is vast, from the unintended consequences of international election monitoring on domestic institutions, governance, and freedoms, to the effect of early elections on post-conflict states.

Have a look in JSTOR: https://www.jstor.org

With over 7.5 million back tested risk points, appearing in over 1,000 published works, and independently back tested for accuracy and relevance, PRS’ data series continues to produce meaningful empirical findings, profitable asset allocations, and informed corporate planning and valuation.

No other geopolitical risk firm occupies this position in the industry.

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