Insights

Dear Clients, Towards the end of last year, I was asked about some of the political risks that we should be aware of as 2021 unfolds. Forecasts, as it were. The query came alongside the annual ‘top ten’ lists that some risk firms offer for the coming 12 months. The pandemic was in full swing, Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, At first glance – and given the media treatment of the events in Afghanistan over the past several weeks – the trajectory of political risk in that country doesn’t appear to be too promising. Indeed, since most in the political risk business today were far too young to be Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, A question I’m asked increasingly often is whether we see any real risk of increased sovereign defaults on the near-term horizon.  Much of what underlies the query rests on the now well-known precept that debt moratoria are often just as politically motivated as they are about Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, During client calls and sometimes in conversation about the influence of political risk on investments, I’m asked about the real or measurable impact of adverse effects of politically motivated actions.  Not the esoteric stuff of the ‘talking head’ crowd about, say, the Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The distinction between political risk in developed versus emerging or frontier markets began to blur some two decades ago (arguably with 9-11) and has become even less marked over the past decade with such events as the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump in the US.  As Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, At PRS – and especially so in the ICRG – we are constantly looking at geopolitical risk from a range of perspectives, quantifying the impact of key events, and delineating emerging trends. Our methodology compels us to appreciate and to convey to our clients how our risk metrics Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, As I suggested several months ago in a previous client letter, it wouldn’t be too long before inflationary concerns took hold in much of the public and professional discourse given rising treasury yields, questionable equity valuations, and the trajectory of various asset classes, Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, A good deal of the talk over the past month has centered on the risk of higher inflation and its impact on parts of the emerging market asset class.  The basic idea is that rising US Treasury yields of late reflect looming inflation expectations, which at one level suggests the Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, Over the past decade, it’s been commonplace among those in the investment and multilateral communities to regard the traditional distinction between developed and emerging markets as irrelevant to modern, commercial times. Unlike the 80s and 90s when the balance sheets of many Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, Apart from some very impressive market gains, we’ve come to the close of a year that has been loathed almost universally and which has wrought countless sufferings on millions worldwide.  We are cautiously optimistic that 2021 will be a better year. But as we’ve seen in the US Read Entire Entry