Insights

Dear Clients, With overall levels of political risk expected to rise in the US as the presidential cycle kicks into gear this fall, PRS’ eyes are fixed firmly on parts of Europe. Despite some blips of higher consumer confidence showing up in our models in February, the outlook for the mainstay of Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The next stage in the Venezuelan power crisis continues to unfold in line with our model forecasts. Given that PRS has factored a 75% likelihood of a civilian-military regime in place within the next year, and that – as I mentioned last month – what we are seeing unfold is the Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The early weeks of 2019 have not disappointed anyone with expectations that the already high levels of political and country risk around the globe would continue.  Needless to say, our models are working ‘over-time,’ and the multitude of insights and forecasts they are providing Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, As 2018 draws to a close, an outlook for the coming year is usually expected. It’s almost unavoidable. Yet as a firm that has led the world of quant-driven political and country risk rating and analyses for 40 years – 2019 will be PRS’ 40th anniversary, incidentally – we tend Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, As I mentioned on CNBC last month – and repeated several times in the press and in our reports – the real political risk facing British prime minister, Theresa May, wasn’t getting a deal with the EU on the terms of her country’s exit from the union but selling the product at Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The gyrations and sell-offs of most asset classes during October continued as ICRG was going to press.  Clearly something that I spoke about in previous client letters given stretched valuations, rising  interest rates, trade issues, weakening global growth – the latter witnessed Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, While most attention on emerging markets of late concerns the underperformance of the asset class and the travails of such countries as Argentina and Turkey, one region that hasn’t received much attention is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paucity of discussion is unfortunate since, Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, President Trump’s penchant for bilateral trade deals and turning up the heat during the phases of the negotiations were in full view as PRS was concluding this month’s ratings, analyses, and forecasts. After weeks of what appeared to be stalled talks between Washington and Mexico Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The release of second quarter American GDP growth was one of the more significant market and economic events as PRS wrapped up its monthly data, ratings and forecasts. As our data are showing, the growth figure has some not entirely inconsequential implications for emerging market Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, All eyes were on Mexico and the July 1st vote as the finishing touches to our monthly data were completed.  The backdrop to the campaign could not be more depressing and the election has been among the bloodiest in the country’s checkered history. More than 120 politicians have Read Entire Entry