Ecuador Votes: How Will Geopolitics Will Affect The New President?

ECUADOR: April, 2025
‘…support for Noboa appears to be based more on hope than confidence. The incumbent’s platform was short on specifics for meeting the policy challenges that await. His security strategy borrows heavily from the mano dura (iron hand) playbook that has yielded significant improvements in El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele, but has produced mostly disappointing results elsewhere in the region (including Mexico and much of Central America) over the last 30 years.’

‘Given the trajectory of global oil prices, any chance of a strong rebound this year hinges on a significant boost from the non-oil economy. Although the conclusion of a new lending agreement with the IMF last year is a positive development, the fiscal restraint required to satisfy the conditions for financial support will inevitably have a dampening effect on domestic demand.’

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Ecuador. In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business, and data galore, have a look when time permits.

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