MEXICO: Is the Economic Slowdown Affecting Geopolitical Risk?

MEXICO: October 2025

“…there appears to be little chance of a politically beneficial improvement in economic conditions in the near term. Economic activity has weakened markedly since the 2024 elections and year-on-year real growth slowed to zero in the second quarter of 2025. Employment in the formal economy has decreased by a total of 155,000 jobs since Sheinbaum took office in October 2024. Although the figure is distorted by the shedding of more than 400,000 jobs amid a severe seasonal adjustment in December, the net loss of 134,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2025 highlights a persistent weakness in the labor market.”

“The economy entered a lull beginning in the fourth quarter of 2023 as industrial production slowed to a near standstill and manufacturing output registered a year-on-year contraction. The sluggishness persisted in the first half of 2024, with GDP stagnating on a sequential basis in the January-March quarter and growing by just 0.3% in the second quarter. Activity picked up a bit in the third quarter, boosting quarter-on-quarter growth to 0.8% in the July-September period, but GDP contracted by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, while year-on-year real growth decelerated to just 0.5%, slowing annual growth to 1.4% (from 3.4% in 2023).”

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Mexico.  In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business. There is data galore. Have a look when time permits.

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