Recessions, Recoveries, and Trade Tensions: What’s the Role Played by Geopolitical Risk?

Recessions and recoveries are discussed now and then, and we happen to be in period where most feel the likelihood of a global recession is quite low.

We know that deeper recessions tend to create stronger recoveries.

But in this very good study released by the National Bureau of Economic Research – which makes extensive use of our ICRG risk data – this relationship tends to break down if institutional development is weak and trade restrictions are high – something germane to the president’s suggestion of no tariff talk extensions and tough talk on the copper market.

Have a look when time permits.  Lots to learn. (https://www.nber.org/papers/w33757)

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