SERBIA: Protests and Tariffs – What Happens Next?

SERBIA, September 2025

“Therein lies the dilemma for the government’s opponents. As well as facing electoral bias, it has hitherto lacked the cohesion with which to properly challenge the ruling party and its likeminded allies. Thus, it remains to be seen if a collaborating force, a student, or civic-led movement perhaps, can sufficiently capitalise on advantageous anti-government polling to unseat the populist-nationalist incumbency whenever the elections are eventually held.”

“Serbia is likely to be hit harder by trade tariffs than its competitors in the region, with the country succumbing to a 35% initial tariff on its imports into the US, subject to a final agreement still to be thrashed out. The country’s exports to the US only comprise 2.2% of its total, and ICT services are not subject to any tariffs, but it is a growing market at risk with exports to the US up by almost 25% in January to June, compared with the same period in 2024, to more than $800 million.”

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Serbia.  In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business. There is data galore. Have a look when time permits.

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