THAILAND: September, 2025: Will the Military Intervene Again?

THAILAND, September 2025

‘…the military brass is unlikely to tolerate an ineffective government, regardless of its willingness to uphold the established order. The generals have repeatedly intervened as they have deemed necessary to achieve that end. In that regard, the lingering risk of military conflict with Cambodia, which has not fully abated, despite the conclusion of a cease-fire agreement following a flare-up along the border in July, and concerns about the health of the economy, which have deepened amid the headwinds generated by US President Donald Trump’s embrace of tariffs as a key element of both US trade policy and his administration’s broader diplomatic strategy are among factors that could prompt the military to act once again in the coming months.

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Thailand.  In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business. There is data galore. Have a look when time permits. 

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