The ICRG for January 2026: What the Data Are Showing? And What Are Some Emerging Risks Affecting the New START, Ramadan, and the Ai ‘Tipping Point’ Between the US and China?

The International Country Risk (ICRG) risk ratings for January have been released, providing both insights and a nuanced analysis of certain trends in the data.

Examining our composite risk scores (which differentiate between political, economic, and financial risks, thus preventing double counting in arriving at systemic risk), we observe significant deterioration in Iran, the Congo Republic, Cuba, and Mozambique, while witnessing improvements in Lebanon, Syria, and Sri Lanka. Among the more substantial risks are those associated with upcoming election dynamics, succession disputes, existential threats to the economy, and a severe liquidity crisis.

Regarding asset classes, given the continued weakness in the USD, we are bullish on a number of currencies, including the EUR and the JPY, along with select emerging markets, commodities and precious metals.  The greenback is expected to stabilize by mid-year.

As we approach February, our data and risk governance board’s primary focus lies on the expiration of the New START treaty, the collapse of which could potentially return the world to a state that has not existed since the 1970s. Additionally, we are closely monitoring the rise of hybrid warfare in Europe, the ongoing transition in power in Venezuela, and a series of upcoming elections.

Going into February, we are focused on Ramadan, which historically coincides with an increase in militant attacks across South Asia, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. We are also looking at the so-called ‘tipping point,’ where the disparity between American artificial intelligence (AI) innovation and its aging and fragmented power grid becomes evident. This gap could potentially lead to the ceding of market dominance to China as a global ‘electrostate.’ The implications for Canada are substantial, as the country controls less than 1% of global AI compute capacity, forcing firms to transfer Canadian data to US-based servers.