Trump and Saudi Arabia: What’s on the Horizon for Geopolitics, Investment, and Growth?

SAUDI ARABIA: May, 2025
‘…among Trump’s top priorities for the Middle East is the creation of a US-sponsored Israeli-Arab alliance that will provide a foundation for regional stability, further marginalize Iran, and act as a bulwark against China’s influence. Toward that end, Trump is applying pressure on Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, which MBS has conditioned on Israel’s commitment, backed by a concrete plan of action, to the creation of a viable independent Palestinian state.’

‘…the kingdom is looking to increase annual net inflows of FDI to $100 billion by 2030, while the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been given a mandate to invest a minimum of $40 billion per year on diversification projects (and to more than $70 billion after 2025) and expand its total holdings from about $925 billion currently to $2 trillion by the end of the decade. The investment strategy faces daunting obstacles on both fronts, as indicated by the disappointing numbers for direct investment. Net inflows of new FDI rose to $28.1 billion in 2022, a 13-year high, but still well short of the target at just 2.4% of GDP, and the total decreased in both 2023 and 2024, falling below $16 billion last year.’

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Ecuador.  In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business, and data galore, have a look when time permits.

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