UZBEKISTAN: How Has Geopolitics Shaped Record Growth Levels?

UZBEKISTAN: September 2025

“The national elections were held alongside those for the 65-member regional parliament in the autonomous northwestern region of Karakalpakstan, the scene of violent protests in 2022, and where the victims’ families are still awaiting justice. Both polls were held in the wake of heralded constitutional amendments that were passed by referendum in April 2023. These amendments included new electoral rules and party lists, and efforts to improve female political participation. A new mixed electoral system was invoked, involving proportional representation for half of the 150 seats in the lower house of the Oliy Majlis that was converted from a unicameral to a bicameral parliament in 2005.”

“The economy is expected to record real-terms GDP growth of around 6% in 2025, which would be like the pace achieved in 2024, on the back of business reforms bolstering domestic economic activities, remittance income, and exports. Uzbekistan produces cotton supporting textiles production, there is copper and gold mining, and agricultural output supplying the food processing sector, as well as machinery production making an important contribution alongside services. This of course makes the country vulnerable to trade frictions, not only directly given US tariffs on imports, but also because the country is linked into the supply chain for light manufacturing and textiles.”

From our Country Reports and Economic Forecasts (CREF) on Uzbekistan.  In addition to three probability scenarios for regime-types over 18-month and five-year periods, eleven types of government intervention that could prove injurious to investors and business. There is data galore. Have a look when time permits.

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