PRS GEOPOLITICS (May 2026)

The PRS bookshelf has always been a landscape of intellectual balance. We keep a treasured spot for Montesquieu’s The Spirit of the Laws, where we find the blueprint for the separation of powers and the necessity of geographic influence on governance. Beside it sits Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which provides the logic of the “Invisible Hand” and the efficiency of global trade—the very systems currently being strangled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

But as the energy crisis turns into a food security problem, we find ourselves reaching for something more contemporary and visceral: the work of Albert Camus.

The Breakdown of the Machine

While Montesquieu and Smith describe how a world should be structured to flourish, Camus speaks to what happens when that structure fails. Smith’s “Invisible Hand” assumes a level of rational self-interest and open markets, but the blockade of a primary energy artery is a total disruption of that market logic. It is an Absurd event—a moment where the rational world of the 18th century meets the “unreasonable silence” of 21st-century geopolitical conflict. Camus argues that the individual must maintain lucidity, which is the refusal to look away from the crisis or hide behind false hopes. 

Similar to the way our analysts and Risk Governance Board (RGB) considers the main risk variables of the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), we must see the world as it is rather than how we wish it to be.

Energy as the Catalyst for Hunger

The energy crisis is rapidly turning into a systemic food security problem as we move through May. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, meaning the blockade is not just stopping fuel, but effectively halting the global crop cycle. Farmers facing a dual shock of higher fertilizer costs and rising diesel prices are being forced to reduce their planting or switch to less nutrient-intensive crops. This creates a direct link between the Strait of Hormuz and the world’s dinner tables. Countries in the Global South face welfare losses significantly larger than the US due to their heavy dependence on imported energy and agricultural inputs.

Rousseau’s General Will versus Camus’s Solidarity

The struggle for food security during this blockade highlights a profound tension between Jean-Jacques Rousseau and Albert Camus. 

In The Social Contract, Rousseau posits the General Will as the collective interest of the people that the state is bound to uphold. In a food crisis, the General Will demands that the state act as a central organizer to justify the rationing of grain and the control of energy supplies. If the state fails to secure food because of the blockade, the social contract is effectively broken. This is reflected in the Government Stability and Internal Conflict metrics of the ICRG; when the General Will cannot be fulfilled, the state loses its legitimacy.

Camus offers a more personal alternative through the concept of Solidarity. Unlike Rousseau’s legalistic contract, Camus’s solidarity is born from a shared recognition of the Absurd. While the continuing conflict with the US plays out on a global stage, Camus focuses on the individual who chooses to share their bread. This solidarity is a rebellion against the starvation and chaos forced upon us by the blockade. It is the choice to act with integrity even when global systems like Smith’s markets or Montesquieu’s laws have failed to protect the individual.

Quantifying the Absurd with ICRG Variables

This philosophical tension is measured through the ICRG variables. The Socioeconomic Conditions score measures the real-world pressure on the individual when the General Will fails to provide food security. The External Conflict variable tracks the tension with the US and other nations as an external weight that forces the individual into a state of revolt or resignation (Civil Disorder). Finally, the Bureaucracy Quality score indicates whether a state is capable of enacting Rousseau’s General Will or if the individual must rely almost entirely on Camusian solidarity to survive.

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As always, ICRG and related PRS data continue to be the gold standard of all geopolitical risk data among the scholarly and research communities.  For example, using ICRG’s corruption index as its primary institutional risk measure across 43 low-income countries from 1990 to 2019, this study finds that ICRG-recorded corruption carries materially different distributional consequences depending on institutional development context. In low-income settings where ICRG scores reflect weak institutional capacity, higher corruption and larger informal sectors collectively compress inequality by sustaining income opportunities for groups excluded from formal labour markets. In higher-income countries, the same ICRG-measured variables widen inequality by concentrating gains among upper-income cohorts. The moderating effect strengthens at higher inequality quantiles, confirming that ICRG’s institutional risk ratings carry the greatest analytical weight precisely where income disparities are most acute.

(https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ssqu.70100)

CHRISTOPHER MCKEE, PHD CHIEF EXECUTIVE

Christopher McKee is PRS’ CEO and Owner. An international political economist, global investor, entrepreneur, and author, Chris received his PhD from Queen’s University (Canada) and has been involved in the field of geopolitical risk, limited recourse financing, and private sector development for the past 25 years.