Insights

FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS   Turmoil Financial Transfer Direct Investment Export Market 18‑Month: High A- B A- Five‑Year: Moderate A- B B+   Years Real GDP Growth % Inflation % Current Account ($bn) 2013-2017(AVG) 2.3 1.9 28.77 2018(F) 1.6 3.4 22.40 2019-2023(F) 2.2 2.2 12.10 Read Entire Entry

Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a fully revised report on Peru, where the downfall of President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski under the weight of corruption scandals has unexpectedly lifted a political novice, Martín Vizcarra, into the top office.  With no party affiliation, Vizcarra Read Entire Entry

Premier William Lai’s approval rating has rebounded above the 50% mark, following a decline at the turn of the year triggered by the passage of controversial amendments to the labor code. However, support for President Tsai Ing-wen remains stuck below 35%, and a March poll revealed that more than Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, Italian assets continued to take a hit as we went to press in May, with the government’s two-year note – the debt instrument most sensitive to changes in political risk – being slammed the hardest, rising to its highest level in four years, breaking through 2.7% for the first Read Entire Entry

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s legal troubles continue to cast a shadow over the political landscape as Pakistan gears up for parliamentary elections in July 2018. Even so, the results of the Senate elections held in early March suggest that the PML-N is in a strong position to win, Read Entire Entry

A controversial international court ruling requiring Costa Rica to legally recognize same-sex marriage triggered a political earthquake ahead of the February general election, resulting in the shocking victory of Fabricio Alvarado, the candidate of the tiny PRN, which advocates a socially Read Entire Entry

President Jimmy Morales remains under a cloud of scandal related to allegations of campaign-finance violations involving some $825,000 of funds of unknown origin. Although the president’s National Convergence Front (FCN) controls only 36 seats in the 158-member Congress, there are enough members Read Entire Entry

The three major ratings agencies all upgraded Greece’s sovereign rating in the early months of the year, an acknowledgment of the progress made toward pulling the country out of its debt crisis. The fact that all three judged the outlook for further improvement to be positive reflects the proven Read Entire Entry

This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a revised report on Bolivia, where the top court issued a verdict in November that clears the way for Evo Morales to seek a fourth term as president in 2019. The move is very controversial, not least because voters explicitly rejected a proposal to Read Entire Entry

Dear Clients, The flattening of the yield curve in the US, witnessed by a narrowing of the gap between the two- and 10-year Treasury note, was foremost on our minds as PRS/ICRG concluded its forecasts and ratings for the month. The shape of the curve is important since it is seen as an indicator of Read Entire Entry